County-level employer payroll data shows how pay is distributed across local industries and how that activity has changed. Budget offices can use it to examine economic exposure, then compare the findings with their county’s actual revenue sources. In this article, county payroll data means payroll reported for covered employers operating in a county, rather than county government employee salaries.
The connection between employer payroll and county finances depends on the revenue source. A county that relies on sales taxes faces different risks from one that depends primarily on property taxes. Historical payroll data can inform that analysis, but a current forecast also needs recent economic information and collection reports.
What County Payroll Data Measures
The Census Bureau’s County Business Patterns (CBP) program reports establishment counts and employment, along with first-quarter and annual payroll. It describes covered employers operating in a county. It does not measure the county government’s own payroll or the total income of county residents. An establishment generally represents a business location, so one company can have multiple establishments.
CBP excludes self-employment and most government employment, along with crop and animal production and other specified industries. These gaps matter particularly in rural counties or communities with major public employers.
CBP defines payroll as gross pay before employee deductions. It includes wages and salaries, plus items such as commissions and bonuses. It should not be treated as the full cost of compensation, including all employer-paid benefits.
The reporting periods matter:
- Annual payroll: Pay during the calendar year
- First-quarter payroll: Pay during January through March
- Employment: Employees on payroll during the pay period that includes March 12
Annual payroll and March employment describe different time periods. Dividing annual payroll by that employment count does not produce a precise average annual salary.
How Current Is County Payroll Data
As of September 29, 2026, the Census Bureau lists 2023 as the latest available CBP reference year. Those data were released on June 26, 2025. Census had not announced a planned release date for the 2024 data.
This makes CBP useful for understanding a county’s industry composition and historical payroll trends. For a fiscal 2027 budget, it needs to be supplemented with more recent information. Check the source’s release page before each budget review, because the latest available period can change.
First-quarter payroll does not arrive as an early release ahead of annual payroll. Both are part of the same annual dataset. Comparing first quarters can help identify historical differences within a consistent calendar window, but it does not provide a current mid-year update.
The January-through-March period also includes any bonuses paid during those months. Comparing the same quarter across years does not eliminate seasonal influences or changes in payment timing.
How Payroll Relates to County Revenue
NACo’s overview of county finances reports that county-generated sources account for about 68 percent of county revenue nationally. It identifies property taxes as roughly $200 billion, or 38 percent of county-generated revenue, and sales taxes as about $70 billion, or 13 percent. The 38 percent and 13 percent shares use county-generated revenue as their denominator; they are not shares of all county revenue.
These national figures provide context and should not be treated as estimates of a county’s current receipts. A forecast should use the county’s own revenue mix and collection history.
Sales Taxes
A decline in earnings may weaken household spending, making payroll a useful factor to examine where sales taxes support the budget. The relationship is not automatic.
People who work in one county may live and shop in another. Visitor spending can also matter, particularly in tourism-dependent communities. Changes in taxable purchases may differ from changes in payroll.
Compare payroll trends with actual sales tax receipts and available taxable-sales reports. Test whether the relationship has been useful locally before assuming a particular payroll decline will produce a corresponding revenue loss.
Income and Occupational Taxes
Where a county levies an income or occupational tax, earnings can have a closer connection to revenue. The applicable rules still determine which income belongs in the forecast.
For example, Indiana generally bases residents’ county tax on their county of residence on January 1. Payroll reported by employers within the county will not capture all earnings of residents who commute elsewhere.
Multnomah County, Oregon, provides another example: it levies a personal income tax to support Preschool for All. Different county taxes have different taxable-income definitions and thresholds.
Use the specific tax’s base and distribution rules when modeling revenue. Employer payroll alone may omit important taxable income or include earnings taxed elsewhere.
Property Taxes
Payroll trends can provide context for demand in the local property market. Their connection to property tax collections is more indirect.
Assessed values and the timing of reassessments matter, as do levy limits and collection performance. A change in market value does not necessarily create an equivalent change in county revenue.
Research on property tax collections shows how assessment lags and tax-rate decisions can cushion revenue during a downturn. A budget office should still evaluate its own exposure, especially where the tax base is concentrated in a few properties or industries.
Use QCEW for More Recent Employment and Wage Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or QCEW, covers more than 95 percent of U.S. jobs. It provides county-level industry information and includes covered government employment. The national coverage figure does not guarantee the same coverage in each county. Some detailed figures are withheld to protect employer confidentiality.
BLS generally publishes QCEW data within six months of a quarter’s end. As of September 29, 2026, its latest County Employment and Wages release covers the first quarter of 2026. That release appeared on August 28, 2026.
For a budget review, select the source that matches the question:
Q: Which industries account for the county’s historical payroll?
A: CBP
Q: How have covered wages changed in the latest available quarter?
A: QCEW
Q: How many establishments operate in an industry?
A: CBP or QCEW, with coverage and period identified
Q: Has a particular employer announced cuts?
A: Employer announcements and state workforce notices, where available; public CBP and QCEW tables cannot confirm an individual employer’s cuts
Q: Are county receipts falling short of budget?
A: The county’s collection and financial reports
CBP and QCEW can appear in the same report. Label their periods and coverage clearly, and calculate changes within each source. Do not splice their totals into one continuous series. BLS also cautions that QCEW changes can reflect reporting corrections or reclassification. Its published year-over-year growth rates adjust for many administrative changes, so they may differ from calculations using downloaded totals. Check release notes and revisions before interpreting a large movement. A rise in average weekly wages does not necessarily mean workers received raises. It can also reflect a shift toward higher-paying jobs or the loss of lower-paying jobs.
Building Payroll Into a Budget Review
GFOA recommends forecasting major revenues and expenditures over several years, documenting assumptions, and updating forecasts regularly. It also discusses using scenarios to present a range of possible outcomes. Payroll analysis can support that process:
Establish the historical pattern.
Review several available years where comparable data exist. Calculate payroll changes by industry and check whether a result reflects an unusual comparison year.
Check comparability.
Review industry codes and geographic boundaries. For published CBP years, examine disclosure flags and noise indicators. Missing or withheld figures should not be treated as zero.
Compare with broader conditions.
Examine the same industries statewide and in relevant neighboring counties. A difference warrants investigation; it does not, by itself, identify a local problem.
Bring the review forward.
Add the latest QCEW information and county receipts. Distinguish total wage growth from changes in average wages, and consider inflation when interpreting purchasing power.
Test revenue scenarios.
State how the economic change could affect a particular revenue source. Use the county’s historical experience to inform the baseline and downside case, and identify what new evidence would justify an update.
Reading a Payroll Decline Carefully
Consider a hypothetical county where annual manufacturing payroll falls 6 percent from one CBP reference year to the next, while March employment falls 2 percent.
The figures show that payroll declined faster than the March employment count. They do not explain why. Lower bonuses could contribute, as could a shift in the mix of jobs. Changes in hours are another possibility, but CBP does not measure them.
A budget office should investigate the difference before changing its forecast. Check subsequent wage data and compare the findings with receipts. A downside scenario becomes more useful when it rests on corroborating evidence and an identified revenue exposure.
County payroll data is most useful when it helps officials test their revenue assumptions. Combine that historical perspective with current collection reports, then explain how the evidence supports the forecast. For related reading on industry comparisons, see CEA’s county healthcare employment article.